Russia is reportedly moving from the stage of experimental testing to that of operational anti-satellite weapons in low orbit, with American satellites considered crucial in its sights, General Stephen Whiting, head of US Space Command, recently warned. Without naming it, he was most likely referring to the Russian military program Nivelir, a series of so-called “Russian doll” satellites that closely approach and follow spy satellites of the American National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).
Since 2013, several Nivelir spacecraft have been launched into orbits close to those of American spy satellites and some have released smaller sub-satellites in flight capable of carrying out their own maneuvers. Ars Technica explains that during a test in 2020, one of these sub-satellites even ejected a mysterious object at high speed, which American analysts consider to be a projectile that could be fired at another satellite. Hence the recurring comparison with a matryoshka: an outer shell housing internal weapons.
The last satellite suspected of belonging to this program was launched last May from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, at the precise moment when the rotation of the Earth brought the site under the orbital plane of USA-338, an optical satellite of the NRO. This type of synchronization, used for example for flights to the ISS, makes it possible to immediately place the craft on the same trajectory as its target.
So far, the Nivelir satellites have not reduced the distance to less than a few tens of kilometers, but they are positioned in such a way as to be able to approach quickly, which owes nothing to chance: a launch delayed by a few minutes would place them on another orbital plane, making the approach much more difficult, if not impossible with the available fuel.
For General Whiting, there is little doubt that Moscow first “tested weapons near our satellites”and that it now deploys operational systems “at orbital range” of these assets with very high strategic value. He compares this attitude to a situation where the United States would test a new fighter and its missiles not in Nevada, but by flying it as close as possible to a Russian bomber on patrol: an unusual provocation, far from traditional testing practices.
Moscow less well armed than Beijing or Washington
This increase in power requires the United States to carry out permanent surveillance of objects in orbit. A network of radars and telescopes on the ground and in space continuously tracks tens of thousands of debris and satellites, paying particular attention to devices likely to threaten intelligence, navigation or early warning platforms. “If one of these Russian systems begins to maneuver, we want to detect it immediately and warn the operators of the targeted satellite”insists Stephen Whiting.
In the background, Russia remains a solid space player, even if its industry suffers from chronic underfunding, quality problems and international sanctions, as recalled in the latest public report from the American intelligence community. Moscow has more limited resources than Washington or Beijing, but seems to have drawn a clear strategic conclusion: faced with a deficit in conventional weapons, it must seek asymmetric advantages in nuclear, cyber and space.
While the war in Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of the Russian army and the importance of systems like Starlink for communications, the temptation is all the greater for the Kremlin to seek leverage in space rather than in direct confrontation.
For the moment, underlines Stephen Whiting, Russia has chosen to attack more in cyberspace than to openly fire on satellites, even if it already carried out a direct anti-satellite test a few months before the invasion of Ukraine, as a signal to the West. The deployment of “Russian doll” satellites now considered operational shows that the orbital battlefield is an integral part of its strategy, and that the stability of space remains fragile.
