Every year in February-March, the entertainment industry and millions of viewers around the world turn their attention to the Oscars ceremony, which has been held since 1929 in Los Angeles (California). A nomination in the “best film” or “best director” category is supposed to be the ultimate consecration of quality. It brings prestige, publicity and higher box office revenue.
But in a study published February 23 in the journal Management Science, we show that these distinctions have a hidden drawback. When a film is nominated for an Oscar, audience expectations rise dramatically, so even exceptional films can struggle to meet them. The very recognition that is intended to celebrate excellence can end up causing more public disappointment.
We call this the “Oscar paradox”: recognition, by raising the level of expectations, can reduce satisfaction. If our evidence comes from cinema, the same mechanism could occur in other contexts where awards, certifications or rankings are guarantees of quality.
A bar placed higher
Awards and quality labels have become a universal marketing tool. Restaurants highlight their stars in the Michelin Guide. Electronic devices display the “Editor’s Choice” label. Online retailers use “Amazon’s Choice” or “Top Rated” badges. In principle, these signals are supposed to help consumers make better decisions: they filter information, reduce uncertainty and reward excellence.
However, psychological research shows us that expectations influence satisfaction. When consumers approach a product thinking it will be exceptional, their frame of reference changes. Even small imperfections can therefore trigger disappointment.
The Oscars provide a natural setting to study this phenomenon. Unlike many markets where quality can change over time, the intrinsic quality of a film is fixed upon its theatrical release. Ticket prices also tend to remain relatively stable after a nomination. What changes dramatically is how people perceive the film once it has the prestige of an award.
The disappointment effect
To examine this phenomenon, we analyzed more than 25 million individual ratings given to films on the MovieLens platform, spanning more than two decades of data, from 1995 to 2019. We compared how users rated the same films before and after the Oscar nominations were announced.
To ensure that the results were not influenced by differences between people who saw the film, we also used machine learning techniques, training a recommendation system that allowed us to match users with similar tastes who had seen the same films at different times. To put it another way, when a film is selected, or even when it wins an award, it attracts an audience who would not have gone to see the film otherwise. This could influence the results. The methodology that we developed for this article aims to eliminate this effect in our results.
The trend that then appears could not be clearer: after the nominations, the ratings fell. On average, users who rated a film after its Oscar nomination gave it lower ratings than comparable users who had previously rated the same film. The drop is modest in absolute terms, but significant in context. It represents approximately 7% of the pre-nomination rating gap between nominated and non-nominated films.
Less impressionable moviegoers?
This effect is more pronounced among less experienced users, that is, those who have posted fewer ratings and who rely more on external cues such as rewards to choose what to watch. In contrast, experienced moviegoers are less influenced by nominations and less prone to disappointment.
To confirm that this trend reflects genuine disappointment rather than other factors (such as crowded movie theaters or social cues), we analyzed the text of online reviews on IMDb (Internet Movie Database), the world’s largest movie rating platform. After the nominations, expressions such as “expected better”, “disappointing” And “does not keep its promises” have become significantly more common in user reviews.
This confirms what behavioral economics predicts: when expectations increase faster than the experience improves, satisfaction decreases.
Too much buzz
In the context of the Oscars, the film has not changed. Only the audience’s point of reference has changed. A film that once delighted audiences like a hidden gem may suddenly seem “not as good as I expected” once he was appointed.
We also found that this disappointment effect is amplified for films that have received several nominations, which are those that generate the most buzz and enthusiasm. The stronger the signal, the higher the expectations and the greater the potential for disappointment.
Although our study focuses on films, similar forces may be at work in other sectors. Companies use third-party awards, certifications and endorsements to communicate their trustworthiness and quality, whether they be “best places to work” rankings or “organic,” “sustainable” or “five-star” labels. These signals influence how consumers and stakeholders perceive a brand.
Double-edged
Our findings suggest that recognition can be a double-edged sword. It builds awareness and credibility, but it also reshapes expectations in a way that makes it harder to satisfy customers. Three practical lessons emerge:
- It is important to anticipate the gap between expectations before and after. When a product or brand receives significant recognition, customer expectations can increase overnight. Managers should closely monitor satisfaction in the weeks and months following receiving a reward. They shouldn’t be satisfied with sales numbers or engagement. In this context, a sudden drop in ratings may be a sign of disappointment and not a deterioration in quality.
- Recognition must be carefully framed. Marketing teams often tend to over-emphasize awards in their communications (with endorsements like “best”, “unrivaled”, “world-class”). Such framing risks promising perfection. Award recognition should instead be presented as a sign of reliability and hard work, rather than a guarantee of a flawless experience.
- New and occasional users should be given special care. We must support them. According to our data, disappointment was more pronounced among inexperienced viewers. The same goes for new customers or new users of a product. Personalized onboarding, setting expectations, or customer education can help align perceptions with reality.
A lesson in humility… for all
Ultimately, the “Oscar Paradox” reveals a more general truth about recognition in business: Success changes the baseline. Each award or certification redefines what customers consider “great.”
As the entertainment industry experiences a new awards season, movie studios are once again hoping that nominations will translate into higher audiences and bigger profits. But the applause could quickly fade if the audience walks away thinking: “It was good, but not that good.”
The lesson for all managers is this: getting attention is pretty easy. And above all, this is only the beginning. Once the spotlight is on you, an important job begins: maintaining satisfaction.
