In 1520, Aztec emissaries arrived in Tzintzuntzan, the capital of the Tarascan kingdom, in the present-day Mexican state of Michoacán (center of the country). They brought a warning from the Aztec emperor Cuauhtémoc, warning of the arrival of strange foreigners – the Spanish – who had invaded the territory and posed a serious threat. The emissaries requested an audience with the Tarascan sovereign, the “Cazonci”, King Zuanga. But Zuanga had just died, most likely from smallpox brought by the Spaniards.
Relations between the two empires had been strained for a long time. They had clashed on the western frontier as early as 1476, fighting great battles and fortifying their borders. The Tarascans called the Aztecs deceitful and dangerous – a threat to their very existence. Thus, when these emissaries arrived to address an already dead king, they were sacrificed and only obtained audience with him in the afterlife. At that very moment, the fate of the Aztecs was sealed in blood.
The Aztec empire did not collapse for lack of resources. He collapsed because he had accumulated too many adversaries, exasperated by his domination. It’s a historic episode that US President Donald Trump should pay attention to as his rift with America’s traditional allies deepens.
Strength, power and their use
Prussian general officer Carl von Clausewitz and other philosophers of war expounded the difference between force and power in the conduct of state affairs. In the broadest sense, power is ideological capital, based on military strength and influence in the global political sphere. Conversely, force refers to the use of military power to force other nations to comply with one’s political will.
While power can be maintained through a strong economy, alliances and moral influence, force is exhausted. It consumes resources and risks weakening both domestic political capital and a country’s global influence if its use is perceived as arrogant or imperialist.
The Aztec Empire was formed in 1428 as a triple alliance between the city-states of Tenochtitlan, Texcoco, and Tlacopan, with Tenochtitlan eventually dominating the whole. The empire exercised force through seasonal military campaigns, while balancing it with a power dynamic based on sacrificial showmanship, threat, tribute, and a culture of racial superiority.
In its use of both force and power, the Aztec empire was coercive and relied on fear to rule. The populations subject to the empire, like those engaged in what seemed to be a permanent war, harbored a deep animosity and a strong distrust towards the Aztecs. The empire was thus built on conquered peoples and enemies waiting for the right opportunity to overthrow their masters.
When the Aztec Empire shoots itself in the foot
Hernán Cortés, the Spanish conquistador who eventually placed vast territories of what is now Mexico under the domination of Spain, knew how to exploit this hostility. He formed alliances with Tlaxcala and other former subjects of the Aztecs, bolstering his small Spanish force with thousands of native warriors.
Hernán Cortés led this Spanish-Native force against the Aztecs and besieged them at Tenochtitlan. The Aztecs had only one hope left: to convince Mexico’s other great power, the Tarascan Empire to the west, to ally with them. Their first emissaries met a disastrous fate. So they tried their luck again.
In 1521, Aztec envoys once again arrived at Tzintzuntzan and this time met the new lord, Tangáxuan II. They brought steel weapons captured from the enemy, a crossbow and armor in order to demonstrate the military threat they faced.
The Tarascan king this time heeded the warning. He sent an exploratory mission to the frontier to determine whether this was an Aztec ruse or the truth. Upon arrival at the border, the emissaries encountered a group of Chichimecs, a semi-nomadic warrior people who often worked for empires to guard the borders.
When it was explained to them that the mission was going to Tenochtitlan to assess the situation, the Chichimecs replied that it was too late. The city was now nothing more than a place of death and they themselves went to the Tarascan king to offer their services. Tangáxuan submitted to the Spanish the following year as a tributary kingdom, before being burned alive in 1530 by Spaniards seeking to know where he had hidden gold.
If the Tarascans had maintained normal political relations with the Aztecs, they could have investigated the message of the first emissaries. We can imagine how different history would have been if, during the siege of Tenochtitlan, 40,000 Tarascan warriors – renowned for being good archers – had come down from the western mountains. It is unlikely that Hernán Cortés and his army could have prevailed then.
Parallel with American foreign policy
The failures of the Aztec empire were neither due to a lack of courage nor to military inferiority. In their battles against the Spanish, the Aztecs repeatedly demonstrated adaptability, learning to deal with horses and ships armed with cannons. The failure lay in a fundamental flaw in the empire’s political strategy. This relied on coercion and fear, leaving a force in reserve ready to challenge his authority when he was most vulnerable.
Since 2025 and the return of Donald Trump to the White House for a second term, American foreign policy has been consistent with this logic. The Trump administration has recently put forward coercive power in the service of ambitions combining wealth, visibility and affirmation of American exceptionalism, as well as displayed superiority.
With Donald Trump, the United States finds itself pushed into a position where it may have to move from coercive power to coercive force.
This orientation has manifested itself through threats or occasional use of force, notably through customs duties or military operations in Iran, Syria, Nigeria and Venezuela. But this strategy is increasingly contested by other states. Colombia, Panama, Mexico and even Canada have, for example, largely ignored these coercive threats.
As Donald Trump uses American power to claim Greenland, his threats become weaker. NATO countries are sticking to their longstanding pact with economic and military determination, with their leaders saying they will not bow to pressure from Donald Trump. The United States thus finds itself pushed into a position where it may have to shift from coercive power to coercive force.
If this trajectory continues, military engagements, neighbor hostility and vulnerabilities linked to the rise of other militaries, economic disruption and environmental disasters could well leave the world’s most powerful nation isolated and exposed, without allies.
