Ukrainian expert Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, recently appointed advisor to the Defense Ministry, warns that the next phase of the conflict over Shahed drones (or Geran when produced in Russia) will be dominated by a single variable: speed. According to him, the priority is no longer to manufacture more and more interceptors against current models, but to anticipate the next generation. “There is no need to become the “hundred and first” drone manufacturer against the current Shahed. We must work for the future,” he writes in a Telegram post relayed by Business Insider.
Over the past two years, Ukraine has developed an entire ecosystem of interceptor drones – small devices piloted in first-person view (FPV), designed to attack directly the Russian Geran, these mass-produced versions of the Iranian Shahed. Their advantage is economic: where an attack drone can cost from 10,000 to 100,000 dollars (approximately 11,600 to 85,900 euros), an interceptor costs between 2,500 and 6,000 dollars per unit (approximately 2,100 to 5,100 euros), sometimes less. Result: they have become essential to Ukrainian air defense against the salvos of cheap drones sent by Moscow.
Serhii Beskrestnov warns, however, that this window of efficiency could quickly close. He expects Russia to adapt its Gerans in three stages: by integrating avoidance systems, by drawing safer flight corridors and by flying them at very low altitude to evade radars and interceptors. “We will face this, and all the enemy’s bets will be on speed”he assures.
Defenses soon to be obsolete?
For the moment, the most common drone on the Russian side is the Geran‑2, derived from the Shahed‑136, which flies around 185 km/h. But Moscow is increasingly deploying jet-powered versions, called Geran-3, capable of reaching around 320 km/h. Serhii Beskrestnov now considers it likely that these Geran-3s will be pushed to 400 km/h, while a more recent model, the Geran-5, comparable to the Iranian Karrar drone, could go up to 600 km/h. “At some point, all our interceptor drones risk proving useless,” he alerts.
On the Ukrainian side, the current interceptors are relatively inexpensive propeller drones. They were gradually improved to reach speeds of around 350 km/h. But this architecture has its physical limits: difficult to go much faster without completely changing design philosophy, materials and motorization. This is precisely the technological leap that the expert calls for to prepare now.
“If you are a manufacturer, I ask you to start developing interception systems for attack drones at such speeds now, while we still have time”writes Serhii Beskrestnov. His call recalls the 2024 phase, when Ukrainian engineers began working on the first interceptors, while the Shahed threat was gaining strength. In 2025, these models have established themselves on the Ukrainian market, to the point that kyiv has set itself the goal of producing at least a thousand per day.
What remains unknown is: can this model be transposed into a war of extreme speeds or will it be necessary to rethink an entire defense ecosystem? If Russian drones really reach 500 or 600 km/h, the Ukrainian sky will look less like a battlefield and more like a supersonic racing circuit, where each delay in innovation will be paid for in destroyed infrastructure. Serhii Beskrestnov implicitly warns of a strategic risk: if Ukraine does not win this next race for speed, it is not only a generation of drones that will become obsolete, but a whole section of its air defense.
