The heat of recent days almost makes us forget the violent storms, sometimes accompanied by hail, which affected France at the beginning of spring. Far from being an isolated case, similar phenomena have been recorded all over the world. In the United States, the northern Midwestern states were hit by tornadoes and record-sized hail. Victor Gensini, a meteorologist from Illinois, discovered a hailstone larger than a basketball: the latter measured 40 centimeters in diameter and weighed more than 450 grams, reports Smithsonian Magazine.
“We haven’t seen anything like this since we started recording hail events in the mid-1950s.”underlines the specialist. This phenomenon is part of a series of hail records recorded in the state. According to a new study, published in the specialist journal Nature, these large hailstones will become more and more frequent as the climate warms.
According to the team of researchers behind this new data, we are heading straight towards a disaster scenario. In their forecast models, the frequency of hailstones larger than a marble will increase by 47% by 2100 (in the worst case).
Holy record hail! ⛈️ Dr. Victor Gensini from Northern Illinois University measured a hailstone about 6.6 inches across and submitted the information to government officials, who could declare the stone a new Illinois record. https://t.co/1g6fGAG4q5 pic.twitter.com/zgj01Ex2PD
— AccuWeather (@accuweather) March 19, 2026
And even in the best scenario, the probability of seeing storms producing giant ice balls will increase by 38%. To make these predictions, scientists created a computer simulation of their formation, based on variables such as temperature, wind and humidity.
Human activity involved (obviously)
Hail forms when powerful winds from intense thunderstorms carry moisture high enough in the atmosphere that the water vapor freezes. These ice particles then accumulate and grow until they become too heavy to stay in suspension, eventually falling to the ground. As the climate warms, the air contains more and more humidity, which therefore favors hailstones.
The study also shows that the risk of hail is expected to increase in high latitudes, particularly in Europe and the United States. This development is partly explained by a more rapid rise in temperatures in these regions due to global warming.
During another study, published in the journal RMetS, French scientists wanted to know if certain large Parisian storms could be attributed to human-caused climate change. They observed that violent hail events in France and Germany are today around 30% more frequent than before the start of massive emissions linked to fossil fuels.
Each year, hail damage costs the United States approximately $10 billion (approximately €8.5 billion). However, according to climatologist Seth Borenstein, of the University of Northern Illinois, the evolution of these risks will strongly depend on the regions and types of construction, current standards do not always provide buildings sufficiently resistant to this type of bad weather.
