We are not yet done with climate records. After a year 2025 already marked by unprecedented temperatures, 2026 could well reach a new level. Scientists are talking about the arrival of a “Super El Niño”, a rare phenomenon whose effects would be felt in the four corners of the globe. A prospect which worries as much as it fascinates specialists.
The European Center for Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) recently released some dizzying data. According to its models, the probability of a moderate El Niño by August reaches 98%. That of a strong event rises to 80%. As for the scenario called “super”, it is estimated at 22%, which is not negligible. For its part, the American National Weather Service has officially issued an El Niño alert, with a 62% chance that this warm Pacific cycle will begin between June and August.
Normally, trade winds blow from east to west along the equator, carrying warm waters towards Asia. El Niño is a phenomenon that occurs in certain years (every two to seven years) and which partly reverses this dynamic: the winds weaken, the warm waters return to the American coasts and warm the equatorial atmosphere.
As a result, the Pacific upper current is moving south instead of east and is disrupting the global weather. And a “Super El Niño” you tell us? Well it’s the same… but stronger: devastating floods, prolonged droughts, disrupted storm trajectories, here’s what may await us this summer.
What would this change in the world?
On the American side, the contrasts would be notable. The north of the country and Canada would experience a drier and hotter than normal summer, while the south and the Gulf Coast would suffer from heavy rains and numerous flooding. The American West could experience a heatwave season combined with persistent drought and an increased risk of forest fires. Meteorologist Ben Noll sums it up this way: “The impacts are generally stronger, more persistent and more widespread” during a great event.
According to Gizmodo, a “Super El Niño” added to the effects of global warming would propel global temperatures well beyond the symbolic threshold set by the Paris Agreement of +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The only positive note in this table would be that the Atlantic hurricane season would be quieter than usual. We console ourselves as best we can.
However, there is no reason to panic. Meteorologists believe that the forecasts made in spring are far from certain and that the scenario “great» is not the most likely.
What is certain is that the next few months will be decisive. By summer, the scenarios will become clearer and the trajectory of the El Niño episode will become more precise, as will its magnitude.
