The Ebola epidemic, which mainly affects the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), continues to gain ground. It has become the third largest in history, with 906 suspected cases and 223 deaths in the DRC recorded as of May 27 by the World Health Organization (WHO). After the identification, on April 24, of a first suspected case linked to the Bundibugyo strain, a rare variant of the virus, the WHO quickly raised its alert level, describing the situation as“public health emergency of international concern” from mid-May.
The current epidemic is the third attributed to the Bundibugyo variant and it could well spread to other continents, warns the Refractor media, specializing in scientific and medical popularization. Two suspected cases are currently under surveillance in Brazil, and another in Italy. The three people concerned recently traveled to the DRC or Uganda. In addition, an American patient who tested positive is currently being treated in Germany.
To date, there is no vaccine or specific treatment against the Bundibugyo variant. As concern grows, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations has released nearly 53 million euros to accelerate the development of three vaccine candidates. One question remains central: to what extent should we be concerned about this new epidemic outbreak?
A formidable virus
The Ebola virus is transmitted primarily through contact with bodily fluids from an infected person – blood, stool or vomit. The first symptoms include sore throat, headache, fever and muscle pain. But patients’ conditions can quickly deteriorate. Severe forms are accompanied in particular by skin rashes, breathing difficulties, vomiting, abdominal pain or even convulsions.
First identified in humans half a century ago, the Ebola virus has caused more than forty epidemics around the world, including seventeen in the DRC. Most were caused by the Zaire strain, reputed to be much more deadly – its mortality rate can reach 90% compared to “only” 34% for Bundibugyo.
Before the official WHO alert, the virus had been circulating for several months, spreading mainly in urban areas. In health care facilities, transmission accelerated after crowds set hospital tents on fire, forcing patients to leave isolation units. Added to this are certain cultural practices already identified as powerful accelerators, such as traditional funeral rites involving the handling of the bodies of the deceased.
States protect themselves
Faced with the risk of spread, several countries have adopted precautionary measures. The United States and Canada have restricted the entry into their territory of travelers from the DRC, Uganda or South Sudan. India and Mexico have also strengthened disease screening and surveillance measures. Other states now impose a twenty-one day quarantine period on people returning from the DRC. In France, the government has put in place several prevention and surveillance measures, particularly in Mayotte.
The vast majority of experts assure that the risk of a global epidemic remains highly improbable. The current virus could, however, evolve according to different scenarios, recalls Refractor. In the absence of effective control measures, the number of cases could explode in the coming months. The Congolese authorities recorded 900 cases in mid-May, a figure which is largely underestimated according to several specialists.
Conversely, a more optimistic scenario is based on a strengthening of health measures supported by the international community and the rapid development of vaccines. Between these two hypotheses, the most realistic outcome remains that of an increase in the number of cases which would prevent the authorities from containing the current epidemic.
One element, however, distinguishes this outbreak from previous ones: the speed of the international reaction. During the devastating epidemic of 2014-2016 in West Africa, which caused more than 11,000 deaths, mobilization was considered too slow. This time, the alert and financing mechanisms were activated quickly. An encouraging sign, which must be accompanied by a sustainable and coordinated health response.
