The World Cup group stage held some unexpected surprises for sports betting companies. Buoyed by the exceptional performances of star players and the victories of popular teams, these first weeks of competition proved costly for operators, reports the Financial Times. However, they hoped to take advantage of the event to attract new customers and boost their long-term revenue.
According to estimates from Bank of America, the American online betting giant DraftKings would have recorded up to 50 million dollars (approximately 43.6 million euros) in losses during this initial phase. These losses come despite significant investments in promotional offers and new types of live betting, designed to maximize excitement around the tournament… and profits for bookmakers.
The World Cup indeed represents a major strategic opportunity for players in the sector. Faced with the rise of new competitors, notably predictive markets like Polymarket or Kalshi, betting companies, brokers and these new platforms have intensified their marketing spending. The objective is clear: capture the attention and retain the loyalty of as many new users as possible.
Among the most popular bets are combined bets. The latter, which consist of combining several predictions in a single bet, offer potentially high winnings, but are based on much lower probabilities than those of a single bet. Traditionally very profitable for operators, combined bets can however become costly when the results turn in favor of the bettors.
Too prolific scorers
This is precisely what happened when Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé each scored two goals on the same day. Many bettors had bet on this improbable scenario, estimated at around 1% probability. Those who were right thus achieved particularly high gains, accentuating the losses of the platforms.
Betting companies typically rely on teams of analysts to calculate probabilities and adjust odds in a way that ensures a profit margin. They often make their best profits when the favorites disappoint, as casual punters tend to back the big teams and football stars.
In this context, the performance of national selections strongly influences the financial results of operators. For example, the good results of the United States team represented a significant risk for American bookmakers. Likewise, England’s victory against Croatia (4-2), highly prized by punters, cost Flutter, parent company of brands like Paddy Power and FanDuel, dearly, with gains of 4.1 million pounds (approximately 4.8 million euros) for its British customers.
Despite these short-term losses, industry players remain confident about future profits. For them, the World Cup is above all a lever for acquisition and visibility. By attracting new users, they then hope to direct them towards more profitable products, such as online casino games. The perfect time to remind you that gaming is an addiction, that it can be dangerous, and that the platforms will do anything to get you addicted to it. You can ask for help here if you feel the need.
