Beneath kilometers of ice, Antarctica hides a treasure whose magnitude we are only beginning to measure. Gold, silver, copper, iron and even platinum: the depths of the ice floe are full of metals essential to our modern technologies. With the rise in temperatures linked to climate change, this natural safe is starting to crack open.
The geological phenomenon is more complex than a simple melting of the ice: the earth itself is rising, freed from the colossal weight of the glaciers which have been crushing it for millennia. The earth’s crust begins a slow rise, a process that scientists call the “postglacial rebound”. Result: by 2300, expanses of dry land will emerge, redrawing the map of the continent… and that of our desires.
To understand what awaits us, we must look at the recent work of geophysicist Erica Lucas, of the University of California at Santa Cruz. In a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, his team modeled the emergence of these new lands. Forecasts say that if we do not drastically curb our emissions, more than 120,000 square kilometers of soil could appear, the equivalent of the area of North Korea that would emerge from the ice.
This study is the first to incorporate factors like sea level variation and lithosphere thickness to predict the exact location of these future land areas. “As more ice-free land emerges in Antarctica, countries may become more interested in their mineral resource potential”underlines Erica Lucas to Live Science. An observation that already makes diplomats and environmental defenders shudder.
A treaty under high tension
The problem is that currently Antarctica doesn’t belong to anyone. The Antarctic Treaty of 1959, supplemented by the Madrid Protocol in 1991, protected the continent, dedicated to scientific research. Mining is strictly prohibited there, but this lock is not eternal. From 2048, a clause allows signatory nations to request a review of the protocol. Faced with the global shortage of critical metals, the temptation to break this ecological taboo will be immense.
The areas where the emergence of land will be most marked are mainly located in territories claimed by Argentina, Chile and the United Kingdom. These sectors coincide precisely with the areas richest in deposits. The risk? Let Antarctica become the scene of a new war for resources, where economic interests would come before the preservation of one of the last wild spaces on the planet.
However, extracting copper or gold at the South Pole is far from being a pleasure. The climatic conditions there remain extremely harsh and the logistical costs would be enormous. For Tim Stephens, professor of international law at the University of Sydney, this transformation could paradoxically have the opposite effect of a gold rush. “The continent will remain a very difficult environment for the extraction of mineral resources”he explains, suggesting that this ecological shock could instead encourage countries to strengthen environmental protection.
Will we repeat the mistakes of the past by plundering the last frontiers of the Earth, or will we be able to maintain this sanctuary intact? It’s difficult to be optimistic today, but who knows, the current wave of illiberalism and populism may be far behind us and humanity may have found a bit of wisdom by then…
